Video instructions and help with filling out and completing Will Form 2220 Defined

Instructions and Help about Will Form 2220 Defined

Music I studied Chinese politics and I teach courses on Chinese politics so I am grateful for this opportunity today to get to speak to you about events unfolding in China this past year so often when we talk about China we talk about it through the lens of China u.s. the trade war these sorts of things but actually in China and mainly on China and domestic politics this has been a seminal year in part because of this man Xi Jinping and so today I wanted to really just focus on giving you a briefing I thought that would be the most helpful thing to give you a sense of what's unfolding this past year and what we can think about will happen moving forward so I wanted to start as I mentioned I teach courses on Chinese politics so I wanted to start with an exam question which I can see there was a little in little enthusiasm for that but here we go bear with me so this past fall I taught a course on Chinese politics and for the final exam I asked the students to identify a year a critical year in the development of China in particular China's political development so we have this concept in political science something called a critical juncture which is a kind of a jargony way of saying and that is a turning point a year where certain events unfolded certain decisions were made that changed the trajectory of history and so if we look back at the last 70 years of the rule of the Chinese Communist Party certain years come quickly to mind which I'm sure many of you are familiar with the first is of course 1949 1949 is the establishment of the People's Republic of China this is a picture of Mao Zedong standing in Tiananmen Square declaring the establishment of the People's Republic and for the first time in decades the territory of mainland China is consolidated under the rule of a single government so this was a heady time for China and signaling the beginning of mouse mouse rule another year which is of course very important is 1917 1978 the beginning of so-called reform and opening-up if your does anybody here speak Chinese or study Chinese some so I remember when I started taking Chinese I took Chinese 101 in one of the first words we learn is guy Guk - which means reform and opening-up and it's I swear 50% of our lessons were about reform and opening-up so it's a it's an important year and this for those of you who are less familiar with this signal is the beginning of China's economic miracle so dong Xiao ping comes into power and takes a much more pragmatic stance with respect to economic policymaking basically undoes the the command part of the Chinese economy and results in an influx of trade and foreign direct investment in the so-called 30 years of 10% economic growth this is the beginning of this era this is him visiting the US and he's wearing a cowboy hat this is one of the famous images of reform and opening-up another year is of course 1989 1989 is the year of the Tiananmen Square movement and the tienamin square massacre and this is the year where we learned that the Communist Party was willing to do whatever it took to stay in power and was not amenable to the idea of political reform and this is the year where we saw them willing to use live ammunition on student protesters and finally what I'm gonna argue today and what I argue I am starting to come up with this argument it's not fully developed but I what I argue is that potentially 2017 and 2018 have the capacity to be one of those years so it's difficult to know we haven't seen history unfold quite yet we haven't seen the trajectory moving forward but there have been a number of developments in the last 12 months that signaled this might be a turning point for contemporary China in particular this is the year where Xi Jinping the current general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party has fully consolidated his power signaled the start of a new era under his rule that could last well beyond his expected time and power so today I wanted to give you a briefing as to what happened this past year why I think this might be a critical year and then some trends think about moving forward some things that might be be worth paying attention to so before I get into what happened this year I want to kind of set the stage to talk a little bit about how we used to talk about China and when I say how we I mean mostly the political scientists community and when I say used to I mean not that long ago I mean only a few years ago we used to describe the Chinese Communist Party through the lens of almost an exceptionalism so most authoritarian regimes and the Chinese Communist Party is an authoritarian regime they don't last very long they live sort of short brutish violent existences and they fall from a number of different threats the the two most pressing for threats facing any authoritarian leader are the threat from within the threat of a coup attempt actually there's some data on this from Ilan cephalic who's a political scientist at Yale and he actually shows that most authoritarian regimes die in this way they die they crumble from within I think it's roughly 60 to 70 percent of authoritarian regimes fall to be a coup where one leader comes in and basically Institute's a new authoritarian regime and then the second way they fall is through the threat of revolution this is the more romantic version of how authoritarian regimes collapse the population comes

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